484
ACUS11 KWNS 180729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180729
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-180900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 347...
VALID 180729Z - 180900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 347 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK
WILL CONTINUE OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA, FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A WEATHER
WATCH EXTENSION OR REPLACEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH OF
WATCH 347.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STRONG STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AN
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED ZONE OF MAXIMIZED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FROM
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG IN
NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO NEAR 2500 J/KG IN FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, INSTABILITY
HAS INCREASED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE. FOR THIS REASON, A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BAND GRADUALLY SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STORM MODE
IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE, REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS DO SHOW VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY EXCEEDING
500 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELL
ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BAND. AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS IS ALSO EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING PARTS OF THE LINE.
..BROYLES.. 06/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 38468774 38618735 38768674 38928585 39128469 39238324
39098279 38748248 38308247 37928270 37738345 37498588
37498722 37618764 37848788 38278794 38468774
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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