062
ACUS02 KWNS 181730
SWODY2
SPC AC 181728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ARKLATEX INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM NORTH
TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES
AND INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
..SYNOPSIS
THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A REMNANT TROPICAL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE CAROLINAS. A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..COASTAL CAROLINAS
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL LOW BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST, A WINDOW OF SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR DURING
THE MORNING IN THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL PROMOTE
A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO NEAR THE CIRCULATION
ITSELF AND ALONG A PSEUDO WARM FRONT.
..UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, GENERALLY 50S F DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A COMPACT, MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. THE POTENT MID-LEVEL JET WILL BRING 45-55 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO THE REGION. 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-18 TO -20 C AT
500 MB) WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE.
..ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST
AN MCV IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE RED RIVER DURING THE MORNING. THIS
FEATURE, COUPLED WITH HEATING OF A VERY MOIST (70+ F DEWPOINTS)
AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK, PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT, AND STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL DEPEND ON THE MCV OR MESOSCALE CLUSTERING.
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT
FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO THE SPACE COAST.
..NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
POTENTIALLY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AND
MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE NEBULOUS AT BEST. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED IF STORMS CAN FORM. MODERATE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE
40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STORM MODE WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..NORTHERN SIERRA/NORTHWEST NEVADA
A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SIERRA.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MARGINALLY ORGANIZED GIVEN STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WINDS. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS TOO LOW
FOR PROBABILITIES.
..WENDT.. 06/18/2026
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