472
ACUS11 KWNS 181743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181743
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-181845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181743Z - 181845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RE-INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ZONE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM MORNING STORM ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS THIS ZONE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE, WITH AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ANALYZED IN SPC MESOANALYSIS. WESTERLY DEEP
LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AROUND 30-40 KTS OF BOUNDARY SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION. THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS SHEAR TO
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND MULTI-CELL
MODES. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL CLUSTERS SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WIND.
..THORNTON/HART.. 06/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 37617939 37708033 37798192 37638508 37408598 36728600
36198566 36398354 36198140 36278063 36577926 36957898
37577909 37617939
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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