522
ACUS11 KWNS 181747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181746
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-181945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 351...
VALID 181746Z - 181945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 351 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI HAVE CONGEALED INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE
THAT HAS BEGUN TO SURGE MORE EASTWARD AND IS NOW ENTERING
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. LATEST RADAR DATA FROM KMOB HAS SAMPLED UP TO
60-70+ KT INBOUND VELOCITIES AT 1-1.5 KFT AGL OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF SUBTLE
SURFACE MESO-LOW ANALYZED NORTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED, REMNANT MID-LEVEL
VORTEX OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CONVECTIVE
LINE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY INLAND ALONG A SURFACE
THERMAL/BUOYANCY GRADIENT AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE 850 MB JET AXIS. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE AMID A WARM,
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AND MODESTLY ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MAINTENANCE OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 0-500 M SRH IN
EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2 WILL ALSO PROMOTE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES, BOTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
PRECEDING THIS CONVECTIVE LINE. DOWNSTREAM WATCH EXTENSIONS AND
EVENTUALLY A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THESE
THREATS.
..CHALMERS/HART.. 06/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30168957 30428955 30748924 31398845 32198748 32798663
33298578 33448550 33418505 33218476 32738457 32108460
31728475 31008543 30568605 30268646 29968731 29898825
29938889 29998927 30168957
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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