861
ACUS11 KWNS 181918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181917
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-182115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181917Z - 182115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A HOT, HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER-80S/LOW-90S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S TO NEAR 80
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY (2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE).
WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OWING
TO WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW (AS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z JAX OBSERVED
SOUNDING), RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWAT EXCEEDING 1.9-2.0" WILL
PROMOTE AN ISOLATED RISK FOR WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS LIKELY EXISTS FROM SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN BUOYANCY,
HIGH PWAT VALUES, AND MODESTLY-STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXISTS.
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS THREAT AND THE LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION, WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
A MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN GEORGIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEE
TORNADO WATCH 354 AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1185 FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
..CHALMERS/HART.. 06/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 33197894 32987907 32707953 32288023 31938066 31418107
31088138 30788191 30728196 30578269 30618322 30918383
31168402 31588422 31898425 32488420 32858415 33378407
33708393 34008373 34338312 34488249 34488157 34438053
34267968 34127926 33937904 33757891 33607884 33197894
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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