985
ACUS03 KWNS 181935
SWODY3
SPC AC 181934
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS VICINITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LARGE
TO VERY-LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS (SOME 75+ MPH), AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
MODEST SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITHIN THE PLAINS WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
DIVIDE, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER
WILL AID MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH
MID/UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS REACHING EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND PERHAPS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL SUPPORT
INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS, PARTICULARLY AS THEY
INTERACT WITH RICHER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
(BACKING TO NEAR EASTERLY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY) WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, SHOULD
STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE INTO THE EVENING, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS/LARGER HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADO THREAT AND
POTENTIALLY A STRONGER TORNADO. WITH TIME, MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS THIS OCCURS, A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WOULD DEVELOP AND WIND GUSTS OF 75+ MPH WOULD
BECOME MORE PROBABLE. AS CONFIDENCE IN THE CORRIDOR OF A POTENTIAL
MCS TRACK INCREASES, HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
..WENDT.. 06/18/2026
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