761
ACUS03 KWNS 190717
SWODY3
SPC AC 190716
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LARGE
HAIL, SEVERE WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
A MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY,
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
KANSAS, CENTRAL MISSOURI, AND INTO ILLINOIS. AN ADDITIONAL, PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED, SURFACE LOW MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
A MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. AS THIS MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY, AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THIS
CLUSTER, AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE, ARE EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS WILL REPRESENT A ZONE WHERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AMID MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, MOST LIKELY FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ST. LOUIS.
THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
A LOWER PROBABILITY, BUT HIGHER POTENTIAL IMPACT SCENARIO COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF A BETTER DEFINED, SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS MOST NOTABLY
SHOWN BY THE NAM, BUT IS ALSO SHOWN TO A LESSER EXTENT BY THE ECMWF.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF GREATER TORNADO THREAT
ON SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON BOTH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND
THE LOCATION OF THE MORNING MCS. THEREFORE, GREATER PROBABILITIES
HAVE NOT BEEN ADDED, BUT THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, EASTERN COLORADO, AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, TRIGGERED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW (NEAR 50
KNOTS BASED ON MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE) ATOP MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.
..BENTLEY.. 06/19/2026
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