444
ACUS11 KWNS 190802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190801
TXZ000-OKZ000-191030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190801Z - 191030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AND COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. NEARLY SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING CLOSE TO
THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS. THE STORMS ARE
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A POCKET OF STRONG INSTABILITY, WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S F AND THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN
THE 4000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM.
THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAK OVER MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS A BIT
FURTHER EAST HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AS THE
STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED OR COULD INCREASE SOME.
HOWEVER, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIMITED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS,
WHICH MAY KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT LOCALIZED.
..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 06/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 34199910 34519878 34619828 34629752 34529707 34089671
33129683 32489703 32219734 32019791 32109886 32289915
32589937 33249936 34199910
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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