431
ACUS48 KWNS 190817
SWOD48
SPC AC 190815
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
..DISCUSSION
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE SPECIFIC AREAS OF
THREAT WILL BE DEFINED BY THE LOCATIONS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW. THESE SMALL-SCALE
FEATURES LACK CONSENSUS AT THE DAY 4 TIMEFRAME WHICH PRECLUDES 15%
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
BY DAY 5/TUESDAY, SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
SHOWING MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
VICINITY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MOISTURE RETURN AMONG THE GUIDANCE.
SHOULD ADEQUATE MOISTURE ADVECT INTO THE REGION, A NORTHWEST FLOW
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COLORADO VICINITY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
DAY 6 AND BEYOND, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES WHICH LIMITS
PREDICTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER, SPECIFIC DAYS
AND LOCATIONS CANNOT BE HIGHLIGHTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED PREDICTABILITY CHALLENGES.
..BENTLEY.. 06/19/2026
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