224
ACUS11 KWNS 191531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191531
NCZ000-191700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191531Z - 191700Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT, A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 15:15 UTC, RADAR DATA FROM KMHX INDICATED A
BOOKEND-VORTEX STRUCTURE JUST WEST OF NEWPORT, NC, WITH A NUMBER OF
SMALL-SCALE BOWING FEATURES OBSERVED WITHIN THE TRAILING LINE
SEGMENT TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH. STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 45 KT, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE QLCS TO
PARALLEL THE OUTER BANKS AT LEAST AS FAR AS CAPE HATTERAS.
WHILE THE KMHX VWP IS INDICATING VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
ONGOING STORMS, MODESTLY STRONG SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IS YIELDING
0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 150 M2/S2, AND 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT COINCIDES WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO AS THE STORMS CONTINUE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT, A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..MEAD.. 06/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MHX...
LAT...LON 34547719 34767732 35307675 35327581 35297537 34867561
34567618 34477657 34547719
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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