725
ACUS11 KWNS 191735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191735
MNZ000-NDZ000-191930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...RED RIVER VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191735Z - 191930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED SEVERE-WEATHER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
CURRENTLY APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR
DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A ZONE OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL ND. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG, A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF WHICH IS CONTAINED WITHIN THE
LOWEST 3 KM OF THE GROUND.
AREA VWPS AND OBJECTIVE PLAN VIEW DATA INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
IS RELATIVELY WEAK, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND A MORE ROBUST SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS,
THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-20 TO -22 C AT
500 MB) MAY SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION, THE COLOCATION OF RELATIVELY LARGE
LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND VERTICAL VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF EXISTING
SURFACE BOUNDARIES SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.
EXPECTED SEVERE-WEATHER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CURRENTLY APPEAR TOO
LIMITED TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE. GREATER SEVERE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MEAD.. 06/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47419763 48299735 49069736 49369678 48999527 48299443
47709401 47229413 46599510 46389604 46189660 46479805
47419763
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