383
ACUS11 KWNS 191932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191931
FLZ000-192130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FLORIDA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191931Z - 192130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST OR TWO MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT TO WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THE EARLY STAGES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AMID A COMBINATION OF
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A CONFLUENCE
AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THIS IS SUPPORTING A REGIONAL BUOYANCY
MAXIMUM WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST (7-8 C/KM) ACROSS
THIS REGION WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED. MEAGER
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY SHORT-LIVED CELLS AND
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS, WHICH WILL MODULATE THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER, THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSE UPDRAFTS - AS WELL AS ROBUST DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE (45-65 MPH) WIND GUSTS - ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..MOORE/HART.. 06/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 26598168 27318172 28108168 28518167 28658148 28688113
28588060 28368050 28038047 27578026 27158008 26868003
26558014 26328038 26218070 26178103 26238144 26398163
26598168
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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