442
ACUS03 KWNS 191934
SWODY3
SPC AC 191933
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LARGE
HAIL, SEVERE WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MODELS INDICATED THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING DURING THE
MORNING IN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE DEGREE OF AIRMASS RECOVER BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
CERTAIN. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A SCENARIO REMAINS LOW AT
THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT GOING TO BE OVERLY
STRONG AND ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY. EVEN SO, THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS, AND
TORNADOES IS EVIDENT.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
EASTERN COLORADO. A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 45 KT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY-LARGE (UP TO 2
IN.) HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
ACTIVITY MAY NOT MOVE VERY FAR EAST GIVEN INCREASING MLCIN FARTHER
INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
..KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/OZARKS
HEATING OF A MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PROMOTE STRONG BUOYANCY (PERHAPS 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE). AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD BY THE EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY VICINITY
CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI/ILLINOIS IN THE MORNING
MAY CONTINUE EASTWARD. GIVEN THE MODEST SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, SOME AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE INTO INDIANA/OHIO.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
..WENDT.. 06/19/2026
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