389
ACUS11 KWNS 191944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191943
COZ000-NMZ000-192215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191943Z - 192215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE-WEATHER
THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
DEEPENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND CO FRONT RANGE FROM NEAR LAS VEGAS, NM TO NEAR
COLORADO SPRINGS, CO. IN THE SHORT TERM, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OWING TO STRONGER
CAPPING ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, THAT CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT OF THE STORMS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP, LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE-WEATHER
THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MEAD/HART.. 06/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35530583 36020580 37160540 38760514 38980409 38430323
35900379 35060427 34910511 35120571 35530583
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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