722
ACUS11 KWNS 200040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200040
KSZ000-OKZ000-200215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 200040Z - 200215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH AN ONGOING MCS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED,
SO A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...MRMS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT A COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS PROPAGATING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KS. THIS MCS IS TRAVERSING A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY, WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, 00Z
MESOANALYSIS AND THE TOPEKA 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN PLACE, WITH THE SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MCS LEADING LINE ORIENTATION,
SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS MCS TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN SUB-SEVERE GUSTS SO FAR (I.E. AROUND 35 KTS). HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THIS MCS, A SEVERE GUST OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE. NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE MEDIOCRE AMBIENT
ENVIRONMENT, THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTRAINED IN
SPACE AND TIME, SO A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 06/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 38029793 38519731 38719665 38579597 38109543 37709520
37369522 37139546 36929592 36869652 36919700 37199744
38029793
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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