226
ACUS11 KWNS 201516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201516
NEZ000-201715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201516Z - 201715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL ARE ONGOING, BUT MAY NOT PERSIST BEYOND ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED, THOUGH.
DISCUSSION...WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN CONVECTION, DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SPREADING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, IS
ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AIDED BY INFLOW EMANATING FROM AN
ELEVATED MOIST LAYER (850-700 MB LAYER), CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG, A COUPLE OF CELLS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY VIGOROUS
THE PAST HOUR OR SO, DESPITE THE PROBABLE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING
LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB.
STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT AROUND 500 MB, WHICH THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH OUTPUT SUGGESTS WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN WITH FURTHER WARMING
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
16-18Z. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION ABOVE
RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE SURFACE-BASED AIR, WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL TO
ACQUIRE INFLOW FROM A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AN TIME SOON, IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
PERSIST.
..KERR/HART.. 06/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41679993 41899918 41349784 40579662 40139838 41109957
41679993
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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