666
ACUS11 KWNS 201706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201706
FLZ000-201930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201706Z - 201930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH WET
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT TO NEGATE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS BEEN WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
PAST HOUR PER REGIONAL RADAR AND GOES IMAGERY. MINIMAL CAPPING
WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH WEAK ASCENT ALONG A
SUBTLE CONFLUENCE AXIS, HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MOST 12Z SOLUTIONS. DESPITE
AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE, NEGLIGIBLE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE MAINLY PULSE CONVECTION AND MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY ALREADY APPARENT IN
RADAR IMAGERY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY EARLY IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE, LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS
(PRIMARILY LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES) ARE CURRENTLY NOT OPTIMAL TO
SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST DOWNBURST THREAT. HOWEVER, CONTINUED HEATING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD YIELD POCKETS OF HIGHER MLCAPE AND
STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD FAVOR A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AS CONVECTION SPREADS
EAST/SOUTHEAST. BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS, THIS APPEARS
MOST LIKELY ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN FL PENINSULA.
REGARDLESS, THE OVERALL SEVERE WIND RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT.
..MOORE/HART.. 06/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 25408019 25448049 25678077 26148116 26788136 27768181
28088188 28538174 28778154 28858108 28858073 28438045
28178045 27848037 27408018 27098007 26837999 26638000
25718007 25408019
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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