525
ACUS11 KWNS 202346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202345
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-210145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202345Z - 210145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
STRONG-TO-SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AS SOUTHWESTERLY
MOIST WARM-AIR ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER CONTINUES
INTO THE REGION. STRONGLY VEERING-WITH-HEIGHT WIND PROFILES HAVE
RESULTED IN EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION,
WHICH HAS YIELDED THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION, WITH OVERALL STORM
MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW.
THERMODYNAMICALLY, THE CONTINUED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
IS REINFORCING A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS
EFFECTIVELY SERVING AS A INSTABILITY GRADIENT. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY, MUCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3000 J/KG EXISTS, WITH MUCAPE
QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG TO THE NORTHEAST.
TWO MAIN AREAS TO MONITOR HAVE EMERGED OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE FIRST
IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL HAS
PRODUCED HAIL AROUND 1" PER A LOCAL STORM REPORT FROM WFO OMAHA.
THIS STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREATER
KANSAS CITY METRO.
A SECONDARY AREA IS TO THE NORTHWEST, WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ORGANIZED INTO AN ELEVATED LINEAR MCS THAT HAS PRODUCED REPORTS
OF 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS. THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST.
THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
EVOLVING FROM LARGELY INDEPENDENT, ISOLATED OCCURRENCES TO A MORE
ORGANIZED, SUSTAINED THREAT. IF THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS, A WATCH MAY
BE NECESSARY.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 06/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40899948 42039861 40089475 39299487 39329604 40899948
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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