730
ACUS11 KWNS 210243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210242
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 210242Z - 210345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING
CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...A MATURE COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN KS. BOTH NEXRAD SINGLE-SITE AND
MRMS MOSAIC RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN AN UPTICK IN THE ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY OF THE MCS, WITH A SOMEWHAT INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY
PROPAGATION SPEED AND A WELL DEFINED REAR INFLOW JET. GIVEN RESIDUAL
1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AHEAD OF
THIS MCS, IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE ACCOMPANYING WIND SWATH MAY
POTENTIALLY CROSS INTO FAR NORTHERN OK. AS SUCH, A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED GIVEN A
PERSISTING STRONG MCS STRUCTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING MEASURED SEVERE
GUSTS.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 06/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 36369895 36240043 36480090 36920119 37660140 38360143
38610131 39029976 39169888 38789730 38189654 38129657
37809653 37309660 36909706 36739750 36589798 36509825
36419890 36369895
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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