673
ACUS11 KWNS 210430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210430
NEZ000-SDZ000-210630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360...
VALID 210430Z - 210630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN THE MCS STRUCTURE, ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT RATHER ISOLATED.
DISCUSSION...A NORTH-SOUTH LINEAR MCS HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION (EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS), ALTHOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODEST AT BEST WITH BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, WITH 0-3 KILOMETER LAPSE RATES OBJECTIVELY
ANALYZED TO BE AROUND 3 C/KM. THUS, DESPITE THE LINEAR MCS'S
ORGANIZATION, THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL TO BEING ISOLATED/SPORADIC IN NATURE.
..MARSH.. 06/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43000123 43010026 40710021 40660124 40990127 41260203
41970138 43000123
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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