159
ACUS11 KWNS 210447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210447
MOZ000-KSZ000-210545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 210447Z - 210545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE GUSTS MAY PERSIST WITH ONGOING STORMS FOR AT LEAST
A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE STORMS EXCEED THE EASTERN BOUNDS OF ONGOING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 359 AND 361. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...A COLD-POOL-DRIVEN BOW ECHO MCS (WITH MESOVORTICES AND
A PRONOUNCED REAR-INFLOW JET) CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL KS, WITH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITIES NOTED WITH LINE
SEGMENTS FLANKING THE MCS TO THE NORTHEAST, AT THE NOSE OF A 700 MB
WAA REGIME. THESE STORMS ARE POISED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD
AMID 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND LOCALLY LOWER MLCINH. GIVEN
WIDESPREAD 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR (ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE
MCS LEADING LINE) PRECEDING ONGOING STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
BUOYANCY, IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A SEVERE GUST THREAT MAY CONTINUE
EAST OF THE BOUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 359 AND 361. THIS
MAY ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE BECAUSE MLCINH MAY ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE
IN EASTERN KS GIVEN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, CHARACTERIZED BY
70+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. AS SUCH, CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
THE NEED OF A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 06/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38289411 37629463 37519483 37269537 37099617 37089670
37179694 37369703 39389598 39839543 39999464 39729408
39079390 38289411
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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