727
ACUS11 KWNS 210549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210548
NEZ000-SDZ000-210615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360...
VALID 210548Z - 210615Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN THE MCS STRUCTURE, ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT RATHER ISOLATED.
DISCUSSION...A NORTH-SOUTH LINEAR MCS HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION (EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS), ALTHOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODEST AT BEST WITH BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, WITH 0-3 KILOMETER LAPSE RATES OBJECTIVELY
ANALYZED TO BE AROUND 3 C/KM. THUS, DESPITE THE LINEAR MCS'S
ORGANIZATION, THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL TO BEING ISOLATED/SPORADIC IN NATURE.
..MARSH.. 06/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 41230203 41960140 42990121 43030021 42169979 41409988
40720019 40670121 41020128 41230203
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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