528
ACUS11 KWNS 210737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210736
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361...362...
VALID 210736Z - 210930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361, 362
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
THREAT MAY ALSO IMPACT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI.
DISCUSSION...AN MCS IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS, ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MCS WITH THE RAP
SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 1000 J/KG IN EASTERN KANSAS TO 2500 J/KG IN
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE MCS FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR
AND HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED ALONG
SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. RECENTLY, THE MCS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED. THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE AS INHIBITION INCREASES,
RESULTING IN A MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME.
..BROYLES.. 06/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 39289573 39109454 38519403 37659395 37139408 36749453
36469523 36449661 36669755 36939787 37269794 37689779
38319714 39099637 39289573
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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