342
ACUS11 KWNS 212034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212033
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-212230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364...
VALID 212033Z - 212230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
AN MCS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT UPTICK
IN SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF 1.0 TO 1.75 INCH HAIL HAVE BEEN
NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AS LOOSELY ORGANIZED SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MATURE. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS, THESE CELLS ARE LIKELY
SUFFICIENTLY SPACED TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE STORM MODES FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL -
ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE EASTERN CO BORDER WHERE THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE (2 INCH) HAIL.
BEYOND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THE COMBINATION OF DEVIANT STORM
MOTIONS AND COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES (AT LEAST ONE OF WHICH IS
ALREADY NOTED IN REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KFTG) WILL PROMOTE STORM
INTERACTIONS AND GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS.
AS THIS OCCURS, COLD POOL AMALGAMATION/INTENSIFICATION WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS, INCLUDING OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 75 MPH. PER TIME-LAGGED HRRR/RRFS ENSEMBLES, THIS
TRANSITION APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CO AND
INTO NORTHWEST KS DURING THE 22-00 UTC TIME FRAME.
..MOORE.. 06/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39040422 39320437 39570420 41360235 41620200 41670164
41610122 40830006 40539992 40200000 39910028 38990125
38690191 38570245 38530283 38530318 38590353 39040422
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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