668
ACUS11 KWNS 212219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212219
KSZ000-212315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 212219Z - 212315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364, OVER NORTHERN INTO SOUTHWESTERN KS IN A FEW
HOURS. SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL ARE LIKELY, AND A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON TO ADDRESS THE
IMPENDING THREAT.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RESIDE. PER 22Z
MESOANALYSIS, A PLUME OF 8.5+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ATOP UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, IS SUPPORTING 2500-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL KS. COINCIDING WITH THIS
STRONG BUOYANCY IS 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. ANY STORMS
THAT REMAIN SUPERCELLULAR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL, INCLUDING STONES REACHING 2-3 INCHES IN
DIAMETER, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. HOWEVER, WITH TIME, STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP INTO SMALLER LINE SEGMENTS, WHERE SEVERE GUSTS (PERHAPS ONE
OR TWO EXCEEDING 75 MPH) WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 06/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37790194 39329995 39959910 39969847 39719819 39329820
38699833 38179858 37779895 37479957 37310030 37240090
37290180 37790194
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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