186
ACUS11 KWNS 220103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220102
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-220200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 220102Z - 220200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
DISCUSSION...A TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING AS A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE
SUPERCELLS HAVE A HISTORY OF CONFIRMED TORNADOES. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE, WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER 1000 J/KG TO AROUND
1500 J/KG. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
A MCV ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD SUSTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE
INSTABILITY DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY, A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT (LOUISVILLE VAD
SHOWING 0-3 KILOMETER SRH INCREASING THE LAST HOUR TO NEARLY 500
M2/S2) WILL REMAIN INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THUS, AS THE
UPSTREAM SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE REGION, THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL PERSIST. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE
HOUR.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 06/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 37758677 38368578 38788501 38808406 38688366 38418375
38098424 37748522 37588596 37558670 37568685 37758677
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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