070
ACUS11 KWNS 220150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220149
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-220315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367...
VALID 220149Z - 220315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE WIND SWATH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS, WITH AN OCCASIONAL INSTANCE OF HAIL AS WELL. SOME OF THE
SEVERE WINDS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES, WHERE A
SMALL/TACTICAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...A MATURE COLD-POOL DRIVEN MCS, WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING SEVERAL MEASURED GUSTS WELL OVER 50 KTS, CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AMID A KINEMATICALLY/THERMODYNAMICALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THAT THE MCS WILL
APPROACH A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S F AMID LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS,
YIELDING MUCH HIGHER MLCAPE (I.E. 4000 J/KG) AND DECREASED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE 00Z DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED AN
IMPRESSIVE BUOYANCY PROFILE ABOVE THE RESIDUAL INVERSION LAYER WITH
9+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN A DEEP LAYER, YIELDING WIDE CAPE
PROFILES AMID AN ELONGATED HODOGRAPH, WHICH IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
AN MCS WIND SWATH. UNLIKE THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY
AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, CONVECTION DID NOT BECOME PREVALENT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE MCS, SO A PRISTINE AIRMASS AWAITS THE
ONGOING WIND SWATH OVER A LARGE AREA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO, IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT MANY MORE MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY, AND
MULTIPLE GUSTS MAY REACH THE 75-90 MPH RANGE.
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THIS MCS MAY ENCROACH ON NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES, SO A SMALL/TACTICAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 06/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 37650259 37680176 37890095 38240043 38559997 38689948
38429876 37849835 37359828 36859836 36509854 36209889
36009930 35909985 35990041 36370135 37650259
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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