438
ACUS11 KWNS 220338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220338
OKZ000-TXZ000-220545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371...372...
VALID 220338Z - 220545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371, 372
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS, BUT A FEW LARGE HAIL STONES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOST
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
GUST FRONT.
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 10-KILOMETER
CAPPI IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING
INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS. THE MCS WILL
MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS MCS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IS VERY TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG TO IN
EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. STRONG EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40
KNOTS SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION AS THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE MCS WILL NOT COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THE
MCS ARRIVAL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70FS TO LOW 80FS (AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70FS) WILL RESULT IN A RICH THETA-E
ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD MAINTAIN A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
MCS COLD POOL INTO THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT. AS THIS GRADIENT
MAXIMIZES TONIGHT, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PEAK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CORES
WITHIN THE MCS. ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG THIS EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA, CURRENT KTLX
VAD PROFILE INDICATES ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VEERING-WITH-HEIGHT TO
SUPPORT NEARLY 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KILOMETER SRH AND THE KVNX VAD
PROFILE SHOWING NEARLY 230 M2/S2 0-1 KILOMETER SRH, BOTH OF WHICH
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE GUST FRONT, PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFTS CAN INTERACT
WITH IT.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 06/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35329991 35999858 36479642 36119507 35619486 34929481
34569507 34089581 33969743 34439946 35329991
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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