543
ACUS01 KWNS 220600
SWODY1
SPC AC 220558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..MID ATLANTIC INTO THE MID-SOUTH
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, INCLUDING THE REMNANT OF A PROMINENT
MCV, IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME DAMPENING OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TIME, SOME
FLOW ENHANCEMENT WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO
FORWARD PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS CONVECTION
INTERCEPTS A NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC,
LOCALLY BACKED FLOW MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLS, WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, AN MCV IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM A MORNING MCS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS MCV MOVES THROUGH A VERY
WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT, STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BOTH ALONG THE MCV TRACK, AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV
ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS/CLUSTERS. GUIDANCE VARIES SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV,
BUT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD ALSO EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
..CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITHIN A
RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. MODEST UPSCALE GROWTH CANNOT
BE RULED OUT DURING THE EVENING, THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
DEPICT ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX REGION
THE REMNANT OF A VIGOROUS MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD FROM NORTH TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. SOME SEVERE
THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.
ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE COULD ACCOMPANY ANY OF THIS
REDEVELOPMENT, THOUGH GENERALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO
LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
..DEAN/SQUITIERI.. 06/22/2026
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