858
ACUS11 KWNS 231511
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231510
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-231645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHERN MARYLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 231510Z - 231645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL MAINLY POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG HEATING ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO
SOUTHEAST VA HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 80S
TO NEAR 90 F ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS IN IN PLACE, RESULTING IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND A GROWING CUMULUS
FIELD IS ALREADY EVIDENT. REGIONAL VWP DATA FROM RAX AND LWX
INDICATE AROUND 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA IN TANDEM WITH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER THE REGION
(STRONGER WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT). CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NC/VA. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION AS
IT SPREADS EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL VICINITY. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
DAMAGING GUSTS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF A REMNANT MCV FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND ANY ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS FEATURE MAY POSE,
A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO COULD OCCUR, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF GREATER SEVERE RISK IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS MD/DE/SOUTHERN NJ, AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY VEERED. A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
IN THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONGER FLOW, BUT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP VERY NEAR THE COAST IN THESE AREAS AND QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE.
..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 06/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 34337694 34457766 34857858 35157902 35607919 36027908
36347891 36827847 37277797 38027677 38217635 38337593
38337547 38277517 38137503 37657500 37017507 35747510
35047538 34487620 34377669 34337694
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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