742
FNUS21 KWNS 231637
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VALID 231700Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AS THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. POOR RH RECOVERIES WERE NOTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. A SWATH OF VERY LOW RH VALUES OF
10% OR LESS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH UNDER A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHERN UT BY MID
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA
AMID VERY DRY FUELS.
..INLAND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO INLAND/DESERT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED, WITH DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WITHHELD FOR THIS OUTLOOK.
..WILLIAMS.. 06/23/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1226 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BRING A BROAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CO PLATEAU TODAY. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR WILL DROP RHS TO 5-15% DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THIS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TRANSPORT
THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOW TO THE SURFACE, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH OVER THE ELEVATED AREA. TO CAPTURE
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE, SLIGHT EXPANSIONS WERE MADE TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NV AND SOUTHWESTERN WY. A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AMID RH AS LOW AS 10% WILL YIELD A
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ
INTO SOUTHERN UT. PERSISTENTLY POOR RH NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES WILL
FURTHER EXACERBATE ALREADY VERY DRY FUELS AND EXTEND BURN PERIODS
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE NOT LIKELY, A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT NEAR FLAGSTAFF, AZ. IF ANY SUCH STORM DOES FORM, IT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE MORE POTENTIAL FOR WIND THAN RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD
BASES, LIMITED PRECIPITABLE WATER, AND VERY HOT AND DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL EXIST ON DAY 2/WEDNESDAY.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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