857
ACUS11 KWNS 231803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231803
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-232000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231803Z - 232000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR
TWO. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN
A MODESTLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
MN HOW SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NEAR/SOUTH OF AN
OCCLUDING FRONT EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
EASTERN ND.
MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT GENERALLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOSTER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 25-35 KT, FOSTERING AT LEAST
TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CELLS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL AS LARGE AS 1-1.25 INCHES AND GUSTY WINDS (WHERE STRONGER
HEATING OCCURS). A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITHIN BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF A SURFACE LOW WHERE MILDLY ENHANCED 0-1 KM SRH IS PRESENT.
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEST ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETER SPACE, THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN AS THE OVERALL
THREAT MAY REMAIN SPARSE/TRANSIENT DUE TO A LACK OF HIGHER QUALITY
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 06/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44749354 44549382 44419405 44309479 44209515 44249546
44349603 44659649 45719685 46989744 47839778 48809831
49009793 49099709 48979617 48699506 48289478 45499372
44749354
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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