125
ACUS11 KWNS 231845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231844
OKZ000-TXZ000-232045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231844Z - 232045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO COLLIDE. STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS. WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE APPARENT IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL OK. RECENT DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR/WEST OF THE OKC METRO HAS
PRODUCE A STRONG WIND SIGNATURE WITH OBSERVED GUSTS BETWEEN 50-60
MPH PER MESONET OBSERVATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, MRMS VII TRENDS SHOW
PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL SIGNALS. GIVEN A NOSE OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF BOTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 30-35 KNOT
0-6 KM BWD VALUES OBSERVED AT KILX AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SUGGESTS
STORMS MAY SEE TRANSIENT ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT HAIL/WIND
THREAT PRIOR TO DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE FROM NEIGHBORING CELLS
AND/OR COLD OUTFLOW. THE EXPECTED TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
(SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN OK) CASTS
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
PROLONGED AND/OR WIDESPREAD TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE
AND/OR EXPANSION OF WW 380.
..MOORE/GUYER.. 06/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34569904 34879846 35219814 35509790 35669739 35709682
35409663 34919664 34449679 33929717 33859771 33859812
33989856 34279910 34569904
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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