483
ACUS03 KWNS 231932
SWODY3
SPC AC 231931
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO THE OZARKS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS ON
THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AND BROAD
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON D3/THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEY.
..NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE PATTERN. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL FOCUS ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN BEHIND
THE MORNING CONVECTION, STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR
NEAR THE TWO BOUNDARIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40-50 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL MODES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WITH THE DEEPENING OF
THE SURFACE LOW, A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH WILL ENLARGE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND LEAD TO INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT AXIS AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AT THIS TIME.
..CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE COMBINATION
OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CLUSTER
AND MOVE EASTWARD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
WIND INTO WESTERN NE/KS.
..THORNTON.. 06/23/2026
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