009
ACUS11 KWNS 232158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232158
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 232158Z - 232330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. A
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND/OR LOCAL WATCH EXTENSIONS MAY BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...TWO PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS REMAIN ONGOING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 2155 UTC. MODEST SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION/MCV MAY
SUPPORT CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THESE CLUSTERS AS THEY ENCOUNTER
GREATER BUOYANCY (2500+ J/KG MLCAPE) SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THIS
MAY PROMOTE SOME INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NEAR-TERM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. A
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND/OR LOCAL WATCH EXTENSIONS MAY BE
NEEDED SHORTLY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 06/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33539857 33739778 34129659 34269615 34229559 34059474
33759411 33419395 32979415 32649467 32499590 32519686
32599765 32799833 33069863 33279868 33539857
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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