992
ACUS11 KWNS 240024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240023
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384...
VALID 240023Z - 240200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE MEANTIME. DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER REMAINS ONGOING ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL MCV AS OF 0020 UTC. MUCAPE OF
2000-3000+ J/KG, MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS, AND CONTINUED
COLD POOL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW THIS CLUSTER TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE COOL SIDE
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. GRADUAL NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
COOLING/STABILIZATION WILL YIELD A DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK WITH TIME
AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ELEVATED, BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN SURFACE BASED. DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 06/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 31929366 31959411 32409489 32839534 33109548 33319545
33679520 33919495 34049472 34039441 33909387 33509325
33099294 32689287 32299306 31989357 31929366
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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