169
ACUS01 KWNS 240059
SWODY1
SPC AC 240057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL, 75+
MPH GUSTS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION: SOUTHEAST WY, EAST-CENTRAL CO, AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
VICINITY. THE NORTHERNMOST CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY HAS STRUGGLED
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY, LIKELY DUE TO MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
REMAINING IN PLACE. EVEN SO, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM, THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN MATURE INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY DOWNSTREAM.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE DISCRETE, SPLITTING STORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL CO. STRONG OUTFLOW (GREATER THAN 50 KT) REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN
THIS AREA AMID PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. THESE ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL HAVE
SIMILAR HAZARDS, WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK.
HAIL FROM 2" TO 3.5" IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. STRONG GUSTS COULD
BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME IF COLD POOL AMALGAMATION RESULTS IN A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER.
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS
WITH THESE STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
..ARKLATEX AND VICINITY
ONGOING CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WITH ANY WARM-AIR ADVECTION STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLUSTER.
..MOSIER.. 06/24/2026
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