951
FNUS21 KWNS 241659
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
VALID 241700Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...
..MORNING UPDATE
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 25% IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHWEST, WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 15% (LOCALIZED
SINGLE DIGITS) IN THE UPPER CO PLATEAU. MEANWHILE, A LIFTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ENCOURAGED SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD VIA INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. STORMS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN DRY, WITH DEEP
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS PROMOTING EVAPORATION THUS DECREASING PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW-LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE, A
TRANSITION TO A MIXED WET/DRY STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
UT AND THE CO WEST SLOPE. LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE DRY
FUELS EXIST. STRONG/SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN (SEE THE
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK), IMPACTING ANY NEW/ONGOING FIRES AND
CONTROL EFFORTS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION,
AND VISIT YOUR WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV FOR MORE
LOCALIZED FORECASTS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/24/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1248 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
..CENTRAL AND WESTERN UTAH AND THE INTERIOR WEST
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
TRIGGER HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE LARGER REGION AS DAYTIME HEATING
SUPPORTS MORE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY AIDED BY TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT.
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND SUB-CLOUD DRYNESS WILL AT LEAST INITIALLY
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AND POTENTIALLY VERY
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TOWARD
1.0 INCH BY EVENING, TRANSITIONING STORMS FROM DRY TO A WET AND DRY
MIX WITH A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL THREATEN ACTIVE WILDFIRES,
AND PYROCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS HIGHLY POSSIBLE WITH
PYROCUMULONIMBUS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SURFACE HEATING FROM
FIRE ACTIVITY CAN MAINTAIN MOMENTUM. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
QUICK STORM MOTIONS OF UP TO 30 MPH AND GENERALLY SLIGHTLY DRIER
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOUR CORNERS, EASTERN GREAT
BASIN, WYOMING BASIN, AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
MOUNTAINS.
..NORTHWESTERN COLORADO, NORTHEASTERN UTAH, AND SOUTHERN WYOMING
AHEAD OF THIS AFTERNOON'S INCOMING MOISTURE PLUME, STRONG 45 TO 50
KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE A WINDOW OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
PAIRED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 10 TO 15
PERCENT OVER DRY FUELS BEFORE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN INCREASING LATE
IN THE EVENING.
..CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME AND
COINCIDING WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, 25-35 KNOT MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE EFFICIENTLY MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE HOT AND
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH PAIRED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
WHILE THIS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRIEFLY TEMPER THE SEVERE
DRYNESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, A MUCH LARGER CONCERN EXISTS.
ANY LIGHTNING HOLDOVER IGNITIONS FROM STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
COULD RAPIDLY EXPAND LATER THIS WEEK. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MAJOR, SEASONALLY ABNORMAL TROUGH ARRIVING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page