293
ACUS11 KWNS 251713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251713
WYZ000-251915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251713Z - 251915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED AS THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INTENSIFY.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION (PER GOES IR IMAGERY) ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. WEAK BUOYANCY
DEPICTED IN RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS HAS MODULATED OVERALL CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY SO FAR; HOWEVER, CLEARING IS NOTED IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
IN CENTRAL WY. THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, MIXED-LAYER BUOYANCY SHOULD
STEADILY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE, ESPECIALLY AS
CONVECTION BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR OVERSPREADING THE REGION (35-40 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED
IN UPSTREAM VWPS). CONSEQUENTLY, AN UPTICK IN SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED. GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE,
BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS STRONG AS 75 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE BASED ON
MORE AGGRESSIVE CAM SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH CLEARING IS NOTED
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAND, PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
LINGERING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY MAY LIMIT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE WIND THREAT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
AND WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING HOURS AS THE BAND
INTENSIFIES.
..MOORE/GUYER.. 06/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 41600721 41890951 42040981 42340981 42630949 42950924
43260910 43630903 43960894 44130870 44200826 44020562
43810514 43360506 42840521 42220563 41850607 41650653
41600721
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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