416
ACUS11 KWNS 251856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251856
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-252130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251856Z - 252130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA BY 20-21Z. A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY MATERIALIZE AT THAT TIME IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OK,
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US 283.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATE A DEEPENING
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE, NEAR GUYMON.
MESOANALYSIS PLACES THAT CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS
LOCATED ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THAT BOUNDARY DELINEATES A HOT, DEEPER-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE FROM A
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHWEST KS.
CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED, HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE OK AND FAR NORTHERN
TX PANHANDLES, NEAR AND TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
SEGMENT WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL SEGMENT IN SOUTHWEST KS AND NORTHWEST OK.
THAT ENVIRONMENT FEATURES A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST/LOW LCL
BOUNDARY, WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORM MODES CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
US 283.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED IN BOTH REGIMES FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.
..MEAD.. 06/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36780271 36930209 37940123 38129903 37669859 36759848
35639984 35170111 35450242 35880286 36660301 36780271
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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