074
ACUS11 KWNS 252004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252004
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-252200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...UTAH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 252004Z - 252200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY SCATTERED TO
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR AND GOES IR IMAGERY DEPICTS STEADY
STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NV INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST UT. CONCURRENTLY, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING DOWNSTREAM HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, WHICH HAS NEARLY ELIMINATED MLCIN BASED ON
THE 18 UTC SLC SOUNDING. THIS RAOB ALSO DEPICTED A FAIRLY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF NEARLY 9 C/KM THAT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS AND STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST
WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DEVELOPING CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY AND SPREADS EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LATEST TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WELL AND SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE, BUT GUSTS
UP TO 60-70 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..MOORE/GUYER.. 06/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...PIH...LKN...
LAT...LON 37870972 37720996 37681015 37721055 37821084 38051102
38401119 38601150 38671190 38681240 38681271 38771304
38911353 39181384 39571407 40111410 40791400 41591355
41931319 42091258 42001201 41701154 41201143 40491101
39851017 39270965 38760946 38160954 37870972
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