735
ACUS11 KWNS 252341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252340
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-260115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252340Z - 260115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A THREAT
FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS AND ALONG A SOUTHWARD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR (40-50+ KTS) AND MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, WITH ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8+ C/KM SUPPORTING A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PROMOTE A RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY/CIN
AMID LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LENDS
UNCERTAINTY TO LONGEVITY/PERSISTENCE OF THESE CELLS AS THEY MOVE OFF
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. GIVEN THIS, WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 06/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37430290 37230274 36880261 36470263 36190278 35990316
35970350 36100386 36280417 36610443 36980459 37400473
37730476 37980478 38190459 38260430 38200374 37900337
37610307 37430290
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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