450
ACUS11 KWNS 260021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260020
OKZ000-KSZ000-260145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 392...
VALID 260020Z - 260145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 392 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 392 MAY POSE A RISK FOR ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS, WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY, KS, WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER THIS STORM (AND ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT) WILL PERSIST EASTWARD OWING TO LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION
NORTH OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (75-100 J/KG INHIBITION
SAMPLED FOR SURFACE AND MIXED-LAYER PARCELS BY THE 00 UTC DDC
OBSERVED SOUNDING). FOR ANY PERSISTING STORM, STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7.0-7.5
C/KM PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS).
ADDITIONALLY, SHOULD STORMS PERSIST FARTHER EAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (350+
0-1 KM SRH SAMPLED BY THE ICT VWP) COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY, LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR TORNADOES, SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG, WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED
(OR WHERE DYNAMICAL LIFTING WITHIN SUPERCELL MESOCYCLONES CAN
OVERCOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL STABILITY). THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF INHIBITION
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
..CHALMERS.. 06/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36980130 37110169 37250183 37530181 37840152 38000120
38180076 38200049 38120017 37989984 37709959 37439955
37139965 36940007 36920058 36950109 37000130 36980130
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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