238
ACUS11 KWNS 260049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260048
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 392...
VALID 260048Z - 260215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 392 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AS OF 0040 UTC, WITH MODEST
INTENSIFICATION NOTED WITH ONE OF THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES. WHILE GREATER LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION EXISTS TO THE SOUTH IN
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA (OWING TO OUTFLOW FROM A PRIOR CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER), LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A CORRIDOR OF
MINIMAL INHIBITION EXISTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS ONGOING CLUSTER
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(AROUND 6 C/KM), STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KTS MAY SUPPORT A
RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORM. A BRIEF
TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN INCREASINGLY
CLOCKWISE-CURVED, LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300+
M2/S2. THE GRADUAL ONSET OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
COOLING/STABILIZATION LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE LONGEVITY OF THIS
POTENTIAL RISK, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS.. 06/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 36669528 36899580 37139610 37319623 37449619 37579600
37639586 37749532 37669478 37439424 37139402 36859403
36599453 36599492 36669528
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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