259
ACUS11 KWNS 261759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261759
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-262000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN PARTS OF WEST
VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261759Z - 262000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF
THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED IN THE VICINITY OF I-75, NEAR
RICHMOND. DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG EVIDENT IN LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THE ONGOING STORMS TO FURTHER INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN KY, POTENTIALLY INTO WESTERN PARTS OF WV AND VA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
TO EVOLVE, LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A WATCH
ISSUANCE.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 06/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...
LAT...LON 37098463 37878421 38268324 38578205 38488130 37938109
37398153 37078184 36698270 36678408 37098463
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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