286
ACUS11 KWNS 262037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262036
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-262230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262036Z - 262230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY
INTENSIFIED IN THE VICINITY OF I-55 NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU, ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COLLOCATED WITH
AN MCV. THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THE
STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SOME ROTATION AMIDST A MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT, PER THE CURRENT KPAH VWP. HOWEVER, LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AS SUCH,
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
ALONG WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 06/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
LAT...LON 37239022 37658998 37888927 37948842 37688788 37098792
36838813 36638862 36618910 36688951 36858999 37239022
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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