199
ACUS11 KWNS 262056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262056
MTZ000-WYZ000-262300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND FAR NORTHERN
WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262056Z - 262300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND FAR NORTHERN WYOMING. A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...A LARGE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS WITH AN ATTENDANT JET MAX EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGHING AS BROUGHT MOISTURE WESTWARD
TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. WITH THIS OVERLAP IN LIFT
AND MOISTURE, STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. DUE TO THE JET MAX,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ONCE CONVECTION
MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS, LARGE HAIL
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROGRESS, STORMS MAY CLUSTER, AND THE DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY PROMOTE A THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS. ONE
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED INHIBITION, WHICH MAY LIMIT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
NEEDED FOR SEVERE WINDS. DESPITE THIS, A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO
COVER THIS THREAT.
..SUPINIE/GUYER.. 06/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
LAT...LON 44840984 45311087 45971135 47451115 47921018 47920915
47580809 46790712 46100688 45250729 44750855 44840984
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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