580
ACUS11 KWNS 270121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270121
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHERN
KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401...
VALID 270121Z - 270245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
TIME. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE SHORT-TERM, HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION HAS LARGELY CONGEALED INTO SEVERAL
CLUSTERS ALONG DEVELOPING COLD POOLS AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS OVER THE PAST HOUR. MODEST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR (GENERALLY 30-35 KTS OR LESS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTLE, MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT, MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION. WHILE A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, WITH AN AXIS DISPLACED ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, MAY AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT,
GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A DIMINISHING SEVERE
RISK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE MEANTIME, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS.. 06/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36459854 36739823 37139721 37309577 37319474 37189434
36929413 36559423 36499428 36089518 35779626 35669703
35669744 35729779 35899818 36179849 36459854
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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