117
ACUS11 KWNS 270203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270202
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-270400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398...
VALID 270202Z - 270400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY ORGANIZE FURTHER AND
BECOME ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH 10-11 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW UPSCALE WITHIN A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, THIS IS FOCUSED ALONG A REMNANT BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL DAYTIME HEATING. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY COOL EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND THERE APPEARS AT LEAST SUBTLE CONTINUING
WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR SPREADING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INHIBITION. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WESTERLIES IS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE RATON MESA/RIDGING VICINITY,
WHICH MAY SUPPRESS LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISE THIS EVENING.
GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, DUE TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO MODEST WESTERLIES, THERE
APPEARS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE FURTHER
AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING COLD POOL, WHICH SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
..KERR.. 06/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 37960220 38430168 37119991 36620113 36980206 37560246
37960220
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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