036
ACUS11 KWNS 271440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271439
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...FAR
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271439Z - 271715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
MCV IN THE SPRINGFIELD, MO VICINITY WITH A RELATED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MO INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AR. RECENT IR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH THE MO
STORMS, ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING FREQUENCY. THE DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70 TO LOW 80, WHICH, COUPLED WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE, IS
CONTRIBUTING TO AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG, PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
BOTH THE KSRX AND KLZK VWPS ARE SAMPLING AN ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL
WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH
AS 45-55 KT OBSERVED IN THE 4-6 KM LAYER. THOSE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE BY LATE
MORNING AS THE ONGOING STORMS CONTINUE EAST AND ENCOUNTER AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 06/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36059187 37059171 37599095 37578927 37448849 37158813
36268830 35708927 35579054 35579140 36059187
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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